{
  "scope": "Global annual customer spending on physical adult or romantic companion robots and paid access to them. Pure chatbot apps and the wider sextech market are excluded.",
  "currency": "USD billions",
  "model_date": "2026-08-20",
  "range_note": "Low and high values are scenario bounds, not statistical confidence intervals.",
  "scenarios": [
    {"year": 2026, "low": 0.02, "central": 0.06, "high": 0.15},
    {"year": 2028, "low": 0.05, "central": 0.15, "high": 0.40},
    {"year": 2030, "low": 0.12, "central": 0.35, "high": 1.10},
    {"year": 2032, "low": 0.25, "central": 0.80, "high": 2.50},
    {"year": 2035, "low": 0.60, "central": 2.20, "high": 8.00}
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "Humanoid companion robots reach a real consumer market rather than remaining mainly demonstrations or prestige purchases.",
    "Romantic and adult use remains a minority of the wider humanoid companion market through 2030.",
    "Hardware prices fall, but service, maintenance and synthetic-body costs keep capable systems expensive for several years.",
    "Paid access expands beyond outright ownership through leasing, subscriptions and venue-installed systems.",
    "The model counts hardware and recurring access revenue, but excludes pure software companions and general sextech products."
  ],
  "anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Humanoid companion robots",
      "year": 2030,
      "value": 1.10,
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "source": "TrendForce",
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260715-13145.html",
      "note": "TrendForce estimates the wider humanoid companion robot market at US$1.1bn by 2030."
    },
    {
      "label": "Humanoid robots",
      "year": 2035,
      "value": 15.0,
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "source": "Interact Analysis",
      "source_url": "https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-revenue-to-reach-15bn-by-2035",
      "note": "A relatively conservative wider humanoid-robot revenue forecast."
    },
    {
      "label": "Humanoid robots",
      "year": 2035,
      "value": 50.27,
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "source": "MarketsandMarkets",
      "source_url": "https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/humanoid-robot-market-99567653.html",
      "note": "A much larger wider humanoid-robot forecast, illustrating how uncertain the category remains."
    },
    {
      "label": "Sextech",
      "year": 2030,
      "value": 107.9,
      "unit": "USD billions",
      "source": "Grand View Research",
      "source_url": "https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/sextech-market-report",
      "note": "A much broader adjacent market. Romantic robots would still be a small slice even under an aggressive robot scenario."
    }
  ]
}